Want the S&P 500 up 10% this year? Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl victory could be your best chance

  • The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LVII on Sunday in Arizona.
  • The analyst said historical data suggests that an NFC team win would generate a 10% gain for the S&P 500 this year.
  • This means the champion NFC Eagles will deliver more stock gains than the Chiefs.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s Super Bowl LVII could lead to higher S&P 500 returns this year after stock investors got into a bear market last year.

The use of high-profile NFL games to predict upcoming stock performance has its origins in the Super Bowl indicator created in 1978 by New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett. At that time, he discovered that stocks rise throughout the year when the NFC predecessor wins, but fall when the AFC predecessor wins.

This year’s battle for the Super Bowl rings will take place at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, with the Eagles led by quarterback Jalen Hearts and the Chiefs led by 2020 Super Bowl winning quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Based on the Super Bowl indicator, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at CarsonGroup, tried to answer the question “Do stocks want Eagles or Chiefs to win?” in a recent note.

The S&P 500 gained an average of 10% during the entire year that the National Football Conference team won, he said. This exceeds the 6.9% return when an American Football Conference team wins.

For a game played in 2023, this would mean that a victory for the Eagles – the champions of the NFC – would bring big profits to the benchmark stock index.

Whether the Eagles or the Chiefs win, many stock investors are hungry for a win in equities this year after the asset class plummeted in 2022. The main factors were the rapid and significant increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, fighting inflation, and fears of a recession. which led the S&P 500 into a bear market last year. The index managed to complete above its worst levels, but still ended with a 19% loss.

“So it’s clear that investors want the Eagles to fly high and win, right? Maybe not,” Detrick wrote about this year’s Super Bowl.

He said stocks have risen for the entire year 10 of the last 11 times an AFC team has won an NFL championship. “In fact, the only time stocks were lower was in 2015, when the entire year ended down 0.7%, almost unchanged.”

From that perspective, stock investors might want to see the Chiefs win their third Super Bowl. In addition to winning in 2020, the team won a big NFL title in 1970.

Before Sunday’s game, the S&P 500 was up about 6% in 2023, and after a dismal end to 2022, the market lead reversed. The communications services group moved into the sector with the highest performance of the worst last year. But some analysts, including Fairlead Strategies co-founder Kathy Stockton, have warned that the recent gains in equities could be offset by macro shifts, including a jump in Treasury bond yields.

Whatever the case, according to Caesars Sportsbook, the Eagles prefer to beat the Chiefs.

“Of course, this is completely random, but it turns out that looking at the previous 56 Super Bowls, stocks perform best when the NFC team wins the big game,” Detrick said of the Super Bowl indicator. But like a yogi [Berra] playfully told us…sometimes things don’t always add up and the investment in it doesn’t pay off.”

Super Bowl indicator table shows S&P 500 earlier better when NFC league team wins Carson Investment Research, FactSet

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