Republican Party wants to fight Sherrod Brown for a seat in the Ohio Senate

Republicans have already set their sights on the seat of incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) ahead of 2024, pointing to signs that Buckeye State is getting redder with every election cycle.

On Tuesday, State Senator Matt Dolan (R-Ohio) filed his second Senate bid after failing in 2022 and became the first Republican to run in the Ohio Senate primary in 2024. Meanwhile, the National Republican Senatorial Committee had already begun running advertisements in Ohio targeting Brown and urging him to resign.

Republicans have won Ohio in the last two presidential races and have retained former Senator Rob Portman (R-Ohio) after he resigned last year. But Brown is seen as a political institution in the state, making him an unusually formidable candidate to beat in an increasingly red state.

“Given the state has changed in the last six, seven, eight years, this is probably the best opportunity to beat it,” said Robert Blizzard, a GOP pollster with Ohio experience. “It will be a different political environment for Sherrod Brown than he has faced in previous campaigns.”

However, whoever wins the primary will likely face a bitter battle against Brown, who distinguished himself in Ohio as his party’s last elected statewide leader.

“Only a fool would underestimate Sherrod Brown,” said one Ohio Republican strategist. “There’s a reason he’s the last running mate among Democrats elected across the state. For years, he’s had the opportunity to connect with voters in Ohio.”

The incumbent senator is known for his ties to disparate voting blocs across Ohio, including working-class white voters who defected to the Republicans after former President Trump’s first campaign in 2016. ) last year’s loss to Senator J. D. Vance (R-Ohio) is proof that Democrats’ hold on the voting bloc is waning.

“Ask Tim Ryan, who copied the brand,” said Ohio GOP strategist Mark Weaver.

Still others say the Brown brand is tried and tested. He went for re-election in 2018, defeating then-Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio) by nearly seven points. Republicans argue that Renacci was not a quality candidate, which made it easier for Brown to win. But Brown also won re-election in 2012, beating then-President Obama in the state by three points.

Other Republicans contend that Brown has been lucky in every Senate campaign he has been in, pointing out that the 2006 midterm elections were a notoriously bad year for Republicans, Obama was the frontrunner in 2012 and won re-election, and Renacci was a poor candidate. .

“You had three different picks where he was given a good year and at least two of them he was a weak contender. He won’t have either next year,” Weaver said.

That’s why Republicans say the quality of the candidate matters so much this time around.

Dolan’s entry into the race only marks the start of the GOP primaries. Other candidates reportedly considering running include businessman and former 2022 Senate nominee Bernie Moreno, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and Attorney General David Yost.

A state senator enters the race with the advantage of personal wealth and a relatively solid ID. In 2022, Dolan beat expectations, narrowly finishing in third place with 23.3% support. Former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel received 23.9% support, while Vance won with 32.2% support.

Dolan’s allies say he will be a formidable candidate, touting his popularity in the state’s suburbs and his ability to please more moderate voters.

“He fits the problem profile that Republicans nationwide should be moving in, that is, a conservative, but someone who’s proven to be a problem solver,” said Blizzard, who conducted the poll for Dolan’s supporter Super PAC. “He is the exact opposite of many national-level candidates who ran in 2022 and lost close races.”

“It’s almost exactly what the doctor ordered,” Blizzard added.

Dolan’s critics say his past criticism of Trump could harm him in a state where Trump has a strong support base. But strategists say a lot of that hinges on whether the former president wins the GOP nomination next year.

Others point to LaRose as the ideal candidate, citing his ability to appeal to moderates and conservatives within the party.

“[Brown’s] Next year is going to be a tough, tough year, especially if Frank LaRose is our nominee,” Weaver said.

The dynamics of maximum results may also affect the Democrats, depending on whether Biden runs for a second term. While Democrats defied expectations across the country in last year’s midterm elections, Republicans continue to advance in Ohio.

“Ohio eluded Democrats for years because career politicians like Sherrod Brown put their wake ideology ahead of Ohio voters,” NRSC spokesman Phil Lettsoe said. “Ohioans overwhelmingly rejected Joe Biden in 2020, but instead of listening to his voters, Sherrod Brown voted for Biden 99 percent of the time, leaving our southern border wide open, raising taxes on the middle class, and hiring 87,000 new agents.” IRS to prosecute the Ohio Family.”

The state of the political environment will also play a role in the race. Democrats seem optimistic for now after their 2022 speech.

“Sep. Sherrod Brown is battle-tested and has a proven track record of winning tough elections,” said Nora Keefe, Democratic Senatorial Committee campaign spokeswoman. “He’s always fighting for what’s right for Ohio’s working families and that’s why he’s up for re-election in 2024.”

But the Republicans seem to be changing their strategy towards the red state Democrats.

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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is already putting pressure on Brown, as well as other Democratic senators from red states up for re-election, such as Joe Manchin (West Virginia) and John Tester (Monte). support proposals that come out of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The same three senators were the target of the NRSC’s “Retire or Be Fired” advertising campaign.

Republicans also argue that the party would benefit from a yearly presidential turnout, especially given the competitive presidential primaries.

“There are many more votes, especially if there are competitive Republican primaries for the presidency. Not much action from the Democrats in a state like Ohio, where anyone could vote in the Republican primary. You could see an explosive turnout,” Blizzard said.

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