McConnell key player in upcoming debt ceiling fight

Senator Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) is set to play a key role in the debt ceiling fight expected to sweep Washington over the coming weeks and months.

The Republican leader is central to the struggle between the conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives, who have decided to achieve significant cuts in domestic spending, and the White House, which at this stage of the game refuses to negotiate spending cuts in order to raise the debt ceiling.

Any increase in the debt ceiling must be approved by both the Senate and the House of Representatives, meaning McConnell will likely have to vote on some sort of compromise if the government wants to avoid defaulting on its payments – something that will blow up the stock markets. would jeopardize the US credit rating and shake up the underlying economy.

“At this point, McConnell could be on the brink, hovering over Niagara Falls,” a former GOP Senate leadership aide said of the challenges facing McConnell, who has been at the center of a series of past negotiations and deals that allowed the debt ceiling to be raised. Democratic President and Republican House.

McConnell will face calls for real spending cuts from fiscal conservatives who see a chance to make changes while at the same time reassuring the public that Republicans are not putting the economy at risk to satisfy the loudest and loudest voices in the Republican Party.

And he will have to do so after a disappointing mid-term election for his party that once again sees him short of a majority in the Senate.

“This will be a defining moment for the party, not only in how we can uphold fiscal sanity on the spending side, but also in how we can convince independents that we are the responsible side of government, which includes not jeopardizing the full credibility of and confidence in the United States,” said a GOP leadership aide.

McConnell gave early signals on how he would handle the crisis on Thursday, insisting that the US would not default on its debt and that he “won’t worry about the financial crisis” that would come.

He said he expected some kind of talks with the Biden administration, but declined to elaborate. The main talks are expected to take place between President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), and on Friday they said they look forward to sitting down and discussing the situation soon. Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) also noted that she expects the lion’s share of negotiations to take place between the White House and Republicans in the House of Representatives.

However, McConnell will face pressure from his own Senate caucus to win something for the Republicans in the standoff.

“It’s going to be a really tough challenge,” Senator Kevin Kramer (RN.D.), who twice voted against raising the debt ceiling at the end of 2021, told The Hill.

“Mitch always insists that we should raise the debt ceiling, and I think most Republicans would agree with him on that,” he said.

“But he seems to be almost giving up any leverage, insisting that we cannot and will not allow the country to default. That’s a great and sweet message for Wall Street, but it’s kind of a lousy message for your competitor or your opponent,” Cramer continued.

At the same time, Kramer made a remark to McConnell’s sagacity, noting with a laugh that “every time I think Mitch is wrong, he turns out to be right.”

The Republican House has already agreed to write its FY2024 appropriation accounts at the FY2022 level, which will cut spending by $130 billion.

Democrats have not agreed to these cuts, as have some Republicans in the Senate. Kramer called them unrealistic and “pipe dreams”.

McConnell has a long history of making deals with Biden, which Democrats have noted privately.

“Just look at the last couple of years. Mitch is the adult in the room on the other side,” a House Democrat told The Hill.

Biden and McConnell famously helped negotiate the 2012 deal to avoid a “fiscal cliff” that, in the absence of a deal, would have resulted in higher taxes and sharp spending cuts.

In October 2021, McConnell extended the debt ceiling by two months to prevent the possibility that Democrats could do so by reversing the filibuster. Before doing so, McConnell consulted with Senators Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) and Kirsten Sinema (I-Aris.), who were under pressure to remove the 60-vote threshold for introducing a debt-limitation bill. McConnell also noted at the time that Republicans would not allow a conventional increase in the debt limit as long as Democrats pursue the Rebuild Better agenda, which is being implemented through a legislative process that prevents Republicans in the Senate from blocking it.

He also brought together a group of 14 other Republicans, including members of the leadership and moderates, to crack down on a filibuster package that allowed the Democrats to raise the $2.5 trillion ceiling on their own two months later.

However, according to multiple GOP sources in the Senate, there was disappointment. around DDecember 2021 vote to end debate among some of these members. McConnell said in a letter shortly after the two-month raise was passed that the party would not help Democrats do it again, drawing criticism from the Republican Party.

McConnell is also now dealing with the bitterness of Republicans in the House and Senate over last month’s passage of a omnibus spending bill. Several Republicans in the House of Representatives, during the fight to make McCarthy Speaker, invoked the bill demanding changes.

“The reason I think it will be more difficult is because at some point the political capital is spent faster than it can be recovered and the omnibus is expensive,” Cramer said. “It was cruel.”

How each side will sit down at the negotiating table in the coming months remains unclear.

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Last week, Manchin was the only Senate Democrat to signal a willingness to negotiate a debt ceiling, noting that he spoke with McCarthy about tying the increase to the Trust Act, a bill he co-sponsored with Utah Senator Mitt Romney. ). create “rescue committees” that look into Medicare, Social Security, and other public trust funds at risk.

“You have to do something,” continued the former assistant to the Senate Republican Party leader. “And if the Republicans say cut spending and the Democrats keep saying ‘do nothing,’ then it really does seem like we’re really far apart.”

“Nothing will happen until we see a storm,” the aide added.

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