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A new inflation report is expected this morning. Economists polled by Bloomberg predict that the annual rate of price growth will slow to 6.2% in January after falling to 6.5% in December. More broadly, inflation has recently come down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

Last month’s CPI report paved the way for the Federal Reserve to raise rates by the traditional 0.25 percentage point, a significant change from its more aggressive stance in previous meetings when it raised rates by 0.75 and 0. .50 percentage points.

Shares rose in response to the Fed’s latest decision, expecting the central bank to be close to ending rate hikes. But a surprise January jobs report that showed US employers added 517,000 new jobs will prompt the Fed to keep raising rates to bring down inflation, given the low unemployment rate, Fed Chairman Powell said last week.

CPI expectations: Inflation could fall faster than the Fed thinks, reducing the need for rate hikes and reducing the risk of a recession

Today’s data is likely to clarify the Fed’s game plan for the rest of the year. Stay tuned for real-time updates:

When will the CPI report be released?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release its CPI report at 8:30 am ET.

Dow futures

Trading in futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average moves slightly higher ahead of the release of the report. Over the past week, the index has risen by more than 1%.

AUSTIN, TX - FEBRUARY 8: A customer buys eggs at a HEB grocery store on February 8, 2023 in Austin, Texas.  According to data from Urner Barry, wholesale egg prices have begun to decline by more than 50% from their record highs in December.  (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775938581 ORIG FILE ID: 1464257767

AUSTIN, TX – FEBRUARY 8: A customer buys eggs at a HEB grocery store on February 8, 2023 in Austin, Texas. According to data from Urner Barry, wholesale egg prices have begun to decline by more than 50% from their record highs in December. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 775938581 ORIG FILE ID: 1464257767

Inflation News

The initial CPI report for December showed that consumer prices were down 0.1% from November. However, revised data released last week showed prices actually rose 0.1% in December. Prices were also found to have risen 0.2% in November, compared to a previously reported 0.1% rise.

These revisions are the result of yearly adjustments that the BLS makes to account for seasonal fluctuations in CPI data. These adjustments adjust for price changes in line with seasonal demand. For example, swimwear prices tend to rise as summer approaches, but by August they are discounted.

Causes of inflation

A host of factors contribute to the high rate of inflation that Americans have been experiencing for over a year now. These factors include increased demand as a result of stimulus checks, labor shortages, supply chain bottlenecks, and a war in Ukraine that has pushed up the price of energy and other commodities.

Another reason for inflation is wage growth. This is because when workers make more money, it gives manufacturers the opportunity to increase prices.

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Chances of a recession in 2023: Slowing down runaway wage growth could help avoid a recession in 2023, but it won’t be easy

Average hourly earnings are currently hovering around $33, up 4.4% from last year, according to the January jobs report.

When is the next inflation report?

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index, or PCE, comes out on Feb. 24. The next CPI report is due on 14 March.

What is the current inflation rate?

The current inflation rate is 6.5% year on year.

CPI Data Expectations

Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast prices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis from 0.1% in December. On an annualized basis, they estimate price growth of 6.2%.

CPI value

CPI stands for Consumer Price Index. It measures changes in how much the average urban American pays for goods and services over a given period of time.

Base installation price

The core CPI is a measure of the change in consumer prices, excluding energy and food, which are usually the most volatile components of the CPI. Economists expect the core consumer price index for January to fall to 5.5% year on year from 5.7% in December.

Elizabeth Buchwald is USA TODAY’s personal finance and markets correspondent. You can fFollow her on Twitter @BuchElisabeth and subscribe to our Daily Money newsletter here.

This article was originally published in USA TODAY: CPI inflation data released today: stay tuned for real-time updates.

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