Gasoline prices will rise in a few weeks, but American drivers won’t face record spending this summer, GasBuddy says.

  • According to GasBuddy, gas station prices will rise again, but don’t expect last year’s stunning levels.
  • “I do think prices will start to rise in March and that trend could continue until Memorial Day,” said Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at the company.
  • He said the national average price of gas at a gas station could reach $4 a gallon in most major US cities, but not the $5 high seen last year.

U.S. drivers should be prepared for gas station prices to rise again this summer, but they will rise, not skyrocket as they did last year, according to Gas Buddy’s chief analyst.

According to Patrick De Haan, the average cost of gasoline in the US could reach $4 per gallon in most major US cities, but not to the all-time high above $5 seen last year. On Friday, the price was $3,380.

“I do think prices will start to pick up in March and that trend could continue into Memorial Day,” de Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, told Insider.

Typically, between spring break and Memorial Day in late May, when Americans start to travel and drive more, there is a lull in gas demand, which can usually help push prices down.

“A lot of it really centers around the refineries and how they can handle maintenance before the summer driving season,” de Haan said of any upward pressure on prices.

Strong stimulus demand for fuel during the warmer months tends to push prices up. Another factor is the annual mandatory switch to more expensive summer blends in some regions, which in the past added as much as 10 cents to the cost of a gallon.

Californians are likely to pay about $1 a gallon more than the national average this summer, de Haan said, but not the $7 a gallon that GasBuddy predicted in December.

“California could go up to $5. But I hope even California doesn’t see such record prices again this summer,” he said.

US gas prices hit their highest level in June last year, when the national average topped $5 a gallon. They rose as world oil prices rose due to disruptions caused by Russia’s war with Ukraine and the energy crisis in Europe.

“Anyway, the last couple of years have taught us that nothing is impossible in the markets. But I think at the moment I don’t see a repeat of the record levels of 2022,” de Haan said.

“Of course, there are many wildcards — for example, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the opening of China, the US economy, inflation, unemployment.”

Crude oil prices have fallen from last year’s highs, but there are risks that falling supply or rising demand could push them higher again. Russia is facing hurdles in delivering its oil due to price restrictions and sanctions imposed by Western countries, while demand in China’s economic power could rise sharply once COVID-19-related restrictions are lifted.

But, according to de Haan, there is some degree of persistence, even if the situation is not permanent.

“We have more confidence in the flow of oil. And so every month the influence of Russia or Ukraine is decreasing. So I don’t see the same price increase as last year,” he said.

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