Experts see ‘despair’ in ‘waving’ Putin’s military leadership

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “half-hearted” decision this week to appoint a new leader for his invasion of Ukraine reflects the Kremlin’s growing sense of desperation, US experts say.

The appointment of General Valery Gerasimov, former chief of the General Staff, as commander-in-chief of the country’s so-called special military operation is causing observers around the world to have growing doubts about Putin’s wartime strategy after a series of embarrassing casualties in the fields since the summer.

But the reshuffle, which included the demotion of General Sergei Surovikin, who has led the invasion since October, could also point to a coming escalation in Russia’s brutal military tactics.

“It seems to me that Putin is hesitant because he is not getting what he wants,” former US ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor told The Hill.

“His army is failing. He tries to shake things up to get the best score and that’s not a problem. … His military is not capable of doing what he wants, for all sorts of institutional, historical, corruption reasons, competence reasons and shaking up the command structure, I don’t think that will give him what he wants.”

This view was shared by senior Pentagon official Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, who said Putin’s decisions point to ongoing logistical, leadership and manpower problems for Russia in a war that is now in its second year.

Gerasimov’s promotion reflects “some of the systemic problems that the Russian military has faced since the beginning of this invasion,” Ryder told reporters on Thursday.

“We talked about some of these things in terms of logistical issues, command and control issues, supply issues, morale issues and a big failure to achieve the strategic goals that they have set for themselves,” he added.

That view was also echoed by former UK Chief of Staff Richard Dannatt, who told Sky News last week that Putin’s decision to replace Surovikin with Gerasimov – just three months after the former took office – could be seen as “a sign of desperation.”

Russia is trying to turn the tide of the war after months of trying to move forward in the face of a strong Ukrainian counteroffensive that has taken thousands of square kilometers from Kremlin control.

Moscow has been trying for weeks to capture the eastern salt-mining town of Soledar, a struggle that was still going on as of Monday. While not expected to turn the tide of the war, a Russian victory could allow continued advances in the Donetsk region, as well as a symbolic victory for Putin.

During the ground battle, Russia on Saturday also resumed rocket attacks on several Ukrainian cities for the first time in almost two weeks, and this shelling continued until Monday.

Among the hardest hit was Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, Dnipro, where at least 40 people, including three children, were killed when a Kremlin cruise missile hit a residential building in what Ukrainian officials say was one of the deadliest strikes in history. the whole war. Another 75 people were injured in the attack, 46 are still missing.

The new missile strikes, when viewed with Gerasimov’s new role, seem to indicate that Russia is stepping up its tactics against Ukraine in an attempt to shift the conflict in Moscow’s favor.

Gerasimov “needs some kind of victory, otherwise his career will end in disgrace. This may well indicate some kind of escalation.” tweeted Mark Galeotti. London-based consulting firm Mayak Intelligence. “Not a nuclear option, but more mobilization or, perhaps more logically militarily but politically dangerous, also the deployment of conscripts.”

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s military intelligence department, said Gerasimov’s new position was part of his goal to capture the Donbas region by early spring.

“Putin does not pay attention to reality. . .. And he already determines the next deadlines for Gerasimov, as, say, the new leader of the war against Ukraine… This goal is to capture the Donbass and form a security zone there, but by March,” Yusov told the Ukrainian publication FREEDIM. TV SET.

While Moscow’s failures and leadership reshuffle are not seen as promising for the outcome of the war for Russia, they do not make the country any less dangerous, warned John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who now serves on the Atlantic Council.

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“The incompetence of the Russian military is now on full display,” Herbst told The Hill. “I don’t want to exaggerate because they still have significant assets. They have a hell of a lot more ammunition and delivery systems than the Ukrainians, and they have more people than the Ukrainians and are willing to let them die to try and get marginal parts of the territory.”

Herbst likened the change in leadership to political theater for Putin to deal with criticism of his military failures.

Putin has a problem [and] he is happy to see others being blamed for the failures of his operation. … As long as he stays away from criticism, he’s fine,” Herbst said.

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