AbbVie Stock: End of 20-year Humira monopoly; So what’s next?

AbbvieHumira’s two-decade monopoly (ABBV) came to an end Tuesday after Amgen (AMGN) released a counterfeit biosimilar at a 55% discount compared to the original. But AbbVie shares have risen.




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The Amjevita biosimilar was the first to enter the US market. But thanks to deals with AbbVie, several more companies will launch this year.

Biosimilars are cheaper versions of biological drugs. Humira’s first biosimilars were launched in Europe in 2018, and AbbVie saw a sharp drop in sales of its biggest revenue stream, treatments for a host of inflammatory conditions.

“With our expertise in biologics development and manufacturing, and years of experience in inflammation, Amgen is uniquely positioned to deliver this biosimilar while lowering costs,” said Murdo Gordon, Amgen executive vice president of global commercial operations, in a written statement.

In today’s stock market, AbbVie stock rose 1.4% to close at 147.75. Amgen shares rose 0.3% to close at 252.40.

AbbVie Stock: Humira’s influence will be in the near future

AbbVie isn’t shying away from the looming Humira challenge. During the JP Morgan Healthcare conference this month, Chief Executive Richard Gonzalez called the launch of the biosimilar in the US “an event we’ve all been planning for here at AbbVie for a long time.”

He is looking forward to the launch of biosimilars from companies such as Amgen, Organon (OGN), Boehringer Ingelheim and pfizer (PFE) to impact AbbVie’s short-term results. Amgen says it will offer Amjevita at two prices: 5% and 55% below Humira’s list price. Different prices provide options for health insurance plans and benefit managers at pharmacies.


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Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat says the 5% off version is likely to perform better as it “offers more reseller discounts.”

Meanwhile, AbbVie stock has been down since early January. The stock peaked on January 6 at 168.11, barely off the buy point at 167.85. But the breakthrough turned out to be a flop, and the stock has since fallen 13% below that high point.

2023 will offer a minimum profit margin: CEO

AbbVie’s Gonzalez says Humira is available to more than 90% of people in the US with insurance. He also said the company is well positioned to deal with the impact of Humira’s loss of exclusivity and return to growth in 2025.

“When we release official guidance for 2023 following the Q4 call, it is important to note that the lower end of our forecast (earnings per share) will represent the company’s bottom line,” he said during the conference call.

Currently, AbbVie stock analysts polled by FactSet expect AbbVie to earn $11.74 in 2023, down 15% from 2022 forecasts. They also forecast Humira’s sales this year to be $13.35 billion, down 37% from last year’s expectations.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.

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